Press releases

• Group revenue growth of approximately 50 per cent anticipated for the full year
• Significant full year earnings growth, as expected

Leading European transport services group Arriva has built on a strong first half of the year, and has advanced in all three divisions. We are confident of reporting considerable revenue and earnings growth for the full year, in line with management expectations.

Trading
Our UK Trains division has continued to demonstrate robust growth in both franchises. Passenger revenue for Arriva Trains Wales is up by 11.4 per cent for the year to 6 December 2008, and passenger revenue for CrossCountry for the same period is up 11.6 per cent on the equivalent services last year*. This represents passenger revenue growth in the eight weeks ending 6 December 2008, of 8.8 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively.

Our UK Bus division has continued to grow, through increased passenger numbers, increased contract mileage in London, and acquisitions. Passenger revenue growth for the first 47 weeks of the year has remained at 6.3 per cent, and mileage growth in our London business has remained at 4.5 per cent. This year has benefited from our fuel hedging policy which has held fuel prices broadly unchanged from 2007.

Significant growth in mainland Europe has continued, with year-on-year revenue up by around 50 per cent for the 11 months to 30 November, reflecting acquisitions, new tender starts, and the impact of the euro strengthening against sterling, all of which have also contributed to an increase in net debt.

Outlook
The macro-economic outlook for 2009 inevitably creates some uncertainty regarding future rail and bus passenger revenue. In addition, as previously highlighted, 2009 presents the specific challenge of a significant increase in the cost of fuel** across the group. We continue to manage costs stringently and, where appropriate, match our services closely to demand. Looking further ahead, fuel costs will be lower in the first half of 2010 compared to 2009.

Against an increasingly tough general economic background, Arriva is a resilient business, with bus and rail operations in 12 countries, a £12 billion order book (as of 31 December 2007), and more than 60 per cent of revenues from government contracts.

Preliminary results for the full year ending 31 December 2008 are due to be announced on Thursday 5 March, 2009.

* Estimated like-for-like passenger revenues for the re-mapped franchise

** We have fixed 85 per cent of our fuel requirements for 2009 (now anticipated to be 522 million litres) at an average price of 42.4 pence per litre before delivery and duty, at current exchange rates, compared with an average price of 29.2 pence per litre paid in 2008. Approximately 13 per cent is covered by indexation, and two per cent remains unfixed. This represents a year-on-year increase in the cost of fuel of approximately £60 million across the group. For 2010, assuming a similar 522 million litre fuel requirement, we have so far fixed around 51 per cent at an average price of 36.2 pence per litre, at current exchange rates. A further 13 per cent, at this time, is anticipated to be covered by indexation. Excluding the CrossCountry fuel fix, our position for 2010 is 43 per cent fixed at an average price of 40.3 pence per litre. As reported previously, 75 per cent of the approximate 100 million litre annual fuel requirement for CrossCountry remains fixed at 26.5 pence per litre, until 2016. Fuel costs, on a like-for-like basis, are anticipated to be approximately £15 million lower in the first half of 2010 compared to 2009.